Eastern United States Research Articles

Feeling a little uneasy: A comparative discourse analysis of White and BIPOC college students’ reflective writing about systemic racism

AbstractThis critical discourse analysis compares the ways in which White and BIPOC college students discuss their experiences of an educational intervention meant to promote better understanding of systemic racism. We analyzed reflective writing produced by 11 White psychology students from a private liberal arts college in the eastern United States and 17 BIPOC students from a Human Services program at a public university in the western United States. White students engaged in whiteness discourse that distanced themselves from the realities of systemic racism and/or relieved the cognitive dissonance associated with the self‐ and group‐image threat related to learning about systemic racism. In so doing, they unwittingly upheld white supremacy. BIPOC students, in contrast, engaged an antiracist discourse that employed critiques of the social systems that produce systemic racism and destabilized dominant colorblind narratives, often by drawing on lived experience. From the Critical Race Theory perspective that the centrality of lived experience is a legitimate lens through which to analyze racial subordination, we discuss the importance of attending to the action orientation and constructed nature of discourse in antiracist education.

Large uncertainty in global estimates of manure phosphorus runoff

The estimation of manure phosphorus loss (MPL) in runoff is crucial for addressing environmental problems linked to nonpoint source pollution. Using a data-driven model, we assessed MPL in 520 major global river basins for the year 2000. Global mean MPL was 1.6 kgP/ha with a median of 0.9 kgP/ha. Hotspots were identified in the basins of South and Southeast Asia, Northwestern Europe, and South America. Importantly, 26% of basin areas showed high uncertainty due to input data, while approximately 43% exhibited low uncertainty. Continental analysis highlighted large uncertainties in Asia and South America, particularly in the Amazon, Ganges, Yangtze, and Nile basins, compared to Europe and the eastern United States. Our findings uncovered substantial uncertainties, even with a simple model, suggesting that more complex models can exacerbate uncertainties and lead to misinterpretations. Thus, there is a need for enhanced data quality and recognition of the conditional nature of model-based estimates.

Ten-Year Response of Riparian-Associated Songbirds to Implementation of Streamside Management Zones in Watershed-Scale Harvests in the Appalachian Mountains

Abstract Streamside management zones (SMZs) are regulated components of actively managed forests in the eastern United States, but width and overstory retention requirements vary widely among states. Within watershed-scale harvests, we evaluated the relative abundances of three riparian-associated songbirds (Acadian flycatcher, Empidonax virescens; blue-headed vireo, Vireo solitarius; and Louisiana waterthrush, Parkesia motacilla) near Appalachian headwater streams receiving three SMZ treatments representative of a range of current state SMZ regulations in the eastern United States. Prior to harvest, all species were relatively abundant near all stream types, including ephemerals. Abundances of all species were largely similar among SMZ treatments at 3 years and 10 years postharvest and were higher along streams with greater residual canopy cover within 100 m. Forested SMZs as prescribed by current regulations can sustain these species in managed forests up to 10 years postharvest, but abundance appears to be driven largely by canopy cover retention in adjacent stands. Managing habitat for riparian-associated songbirds in harvested watersheds will require expanding the extent of focus beyond the local stream corridor to include consideration of silvicultural systems that retain greater canopy cover in surrounding forests. Where conservation of riparian-associated songbirds is a management objective, SMZ protection should be extended to all streams. Study Implications. The results of this study suggest that forested streamside management zones (SMZs) mandated by contemporary best management practices (BMPs) in Kentucky and other eastern US states can sustain similar abundances of three riparian-associated songbirds in managed watersheds up to 10 years after harvest. Overstory retention in SMZs along perennial and intermittent streams is common across the eastern United States, but state BMPs rarely require retention along ephemeral streams. Target songbird species occupied forests along all stream types prior to harvest, and their postharvest abundances were positively associated with canopy retention within 100 m of streams. If long-term occupancy of managed stands by riparian-associated songbirds is an objective, we recommend using SMZs around all streams, including ephemerals, and implementing at least moderate-retention silvicultural systems in areas within 100 m of streams.

Hibernacula of bats in Mexico, the southernmost records of hibernation in North America

Abstract Although Mexico holds the southernmost hibernating bats in North America, information on winter behavior and hibernacula microclimate use of temperate Mexican bats is limited. We studied hibernating bats at high altitudes (>1,000 m a.s.l.) in northern and central Mexico during 5 consecutive winters. Our aims were to document and describe the hibernacula, winter behavior (such as abundance and roost pattern), and microclimates (estimated as adjacent substrate temperature) of cave-hibernating bats in Mexico. We found 78 hibernacula and 6,089 torpid bats of 10 vespertilionid species, increasing by over 50% the number of cave-hibernating bat species and quadrupling the number of hibernacula for Mexico. Hibernacula were at altitudes between 1,049 and 3,633 m a.s.l., located in 3 mountain ranges, mainly in oak and conifer forests. Myotis velifer was the most common species, followed by Corynorhinus townsendii and C. mexicanus. We recorded the adjacent substrate temperatures from 9 species totaling 1,106 torpid bats and found differences in microclimate use among the 3 most common species. In general, abundance of torpid bats in our region of study was similar to those in the western United States, with aggregations of tens to a few hundred individuals per cave, and was lower than in the eastern United States where a cave may hold thousands of individuals. Knowledge of bat hibernation is crucial for developing conservation and management strategies on current conditions while accommodating environmental changes and other threats such as emerging diseases.

A framework for studying the effects of offshore wind energy development on birds and bats in the Eastern United States

Offshore wind energy development (OWED), while a key strategy for reducing carbon emissions, has potential negative effects to wildlife that should be examined to inform decision making and adaptive management as the industry expands. We present a conceptual framework to guide the long-term study of potential effects to birds and bats from OWED. This framework includes a focus on exposure and vulnerability as key determinants of risk. For birds and bats that are exposed to OWED, there are three main effects of interest that may impact survival and productivity: 1) collision mortality, 2) behavioral responses, including avoidance, displacement, and attraction, and 3) habitat-mediated effects to prey populations. If these OWED effects cause changes in survival and/or breeding success (e.g., fitness), they have the potential for population-level consequences, including changes in population size and structure. Understanding the influence of ecological drivers on exposure and effect parameters can help to disentangle the potential impacts of OWED from other stressors. We use this theoretical framework to summarize existing relevant knowledge and identify current priority research questions (n=22) for the eastern United States, where large-scale development of OWED is primarily in the planning and early construction phase. We also identify recommendations for study design and further prioritization of research topics.

Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations

Abstract Short-lived and poorly organized convective cells, often called weakly forced thunderstorms (WFT), are a common phenomenon during the warm season across the eastern and southeastern United States. While typically benign, wet downbursts emanating from such convection can have substantial societal impacts, including tree, power line, and property damage from strong outflow winds. Observational studies have documented the occurrence of severe (25.7 m s‒1 or higher) wind speeds from wet downbursts, but the frequency of severe downbursts, including the spatial extent and temporal duration of severe winds, remains unclear. The ability for modern observing networks to reliably observe such events is also unknown; however, answering these questions is important for improving forecast skill and verifying convective warnings accurately. This study attempts to answer these questions by drawing statistical inferences from 97 high-resolution idealized simulations of single-cell downburst events. It was found that while 35% of the simulations featured severe winds, the spatial and temporal extent of such winds is limited - on the order of 10 km2 or less and persisting for around 5 minutes on average. Furthermore, through a series of simulated network experiments, it is postulated that the probability that a modern mesonet observes a severe wind gust given a severe downburst is around 1%. From these results, a statistical argument is made that most tree impacts associated with pulse convection are likely caused by sub-severe winds. Several implications for forecasting, warning, and verifying WFT events fall out from these discussions.

Abstract PO2-11-11: 'Who’s gonna take care of my babies?' The Impact of Children on Treatment Decisions for Women with Metastatic Breast Cancer: A qualitative analysis

Abstract Background: Many treatment options exist for metastatic breast cancer and decisions may be based on pathology, oncology clinician preference, performance status, financial considerations, patient values, or a combination of these factors. Some studies have characterized the importance that family and a strong support system can have on treatment decisions, but few have explicitly examined the impact that children—and grandchildren—have on treatment decisions in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). This qualitative study examined how being a parent or grandparent influences treatment decisions for women with metastatic breast cancer. Methods: A qualitative sub-analysis was conducted with a purposive diverse sample of thirteen women with metastatic breast cancer in the Eastern United States. Women of color were specifically oversampled relative to the regional population. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore treatment decision making, clinician-patient communication, and patient values relevant to their treatment decisions. Interviews were recorded, professionally transcribed, and coded by three independent coders. Any coding discrepancies were resolved through discussion. Thematic analysis identified recurrent themes important to women diagnosed with mBC. Results: Nearly 50% of the participants were women of color and of the 13 participants, 12 had children. When asked about what factors were important to them when making treatment decisions, a list of more than 10 themes emerged. Five participants said that children and grandchildren impacted their treatment decisions and were a crucial part of their cancer care. Other significant themes that emerged were side effects (54% of participants) and quality of life (46% of participants). Women who expressed that children were their top priority were also concerned about “looking sick” in front of their children. For women who said their grandchildren were the most important factor, being able to watch their grandchildren grow up was the primary motivator for their treatment decisions. Among the women who identified that side effects and quality of life were important, children either provided supportive care, helped with activities of daily living, or were too young to provide support. Conclusions: The presence of children and the relationships women with mBC have with their children was primary in making treatment decisions for their cancer. Of the participants in our study, having children—and grandchildren—rivaled other important factors such as quality of life and side effects of treatment, indicating the need to explore the impact that children have on cancer care as it is currently a poorly understood phenomenon. However, it is important not to make assumptions about patient treatment preferences based on whether women with mBC have children, instead, shared decision-making conversations should determine what is most important when deciding on a treatment plan. Future tools should integrate questions about family and children, and how these considerations may impact treatment decisions. Citation Format: Katherine Tomczik, Lorinda Coombs. 'Who’s gonna take care of my babies?' The Impact of Children on Treatment Decisions for Women with Metastatic Breast Cancer: A qualitative analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO2-11-11.

Long-term Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Disease Exacerbation Among Children with Asthma in the Eastern United States, 2000-2018.

Tropical cyclones are associated with acute increases in mortality and morbidity, but few studies have examined their longer-term health consequences. We assessed whether tropical cyclones are associated with a higher frequency of symptom exacerbation among children with asthma in the following 12 months in eastern United States counties, 2000-2018. We defined exposure to tropical cyclones as a maximum sustained windspeed >21 meters/second at the county center and used coarsened exact matching to match each exposed county to one or more unexposed counties. We used longitudinal, de-identified administrative claims data to estimate the county-level, monthly risk of experiencing at least one asthma exacerbation requiring medical attention among commercially insured children aged 5-17 with prior diagnosis of asthma. We used a difference-in-differences approach implemented via a Poisson fixed effects model to compare the risk of asthma exacerbation in the 12 months before versus after each storm in exposed versus unexposed counties. Across 43 tropical cyclones impacting the eastern United States, we did not observe evidence of an increase in the risk of symptom exacerbation in the 12 months following the storm (random-effects meta-analytic summary estimate: risk ratio = 1.03 [95% confidence interval = 0.96, 1.10], I2 = 17%). However, certain storms, such as Hurricane Sandy, were associated with a higher risk of symptom exacerbation. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that some tropical cyclones are detrimental to children's respiratory health. However, tropical cyclones were not associated in aggregate with long-term exacerbation of clinically apparent asthma symptoms among a population of children with commercial health insurance.

Weather variability risks slow climate adaptation: An empirical analysis of forestry

The timing of climate adaptation decisions can have substantial consequences for the assessment of climate damages. Since weather variability can create risks for natural resource management that differ across adaptation choices, such variability has the potential to alter the speed of climate adaptation. This paper estimates the effect of weather variability on the timing of adaptation decisions of forest landowners in the Eastern United States. A discrete-choice econometric model of forest management is estimated and used in a bio-economic simulation that shows how variability in cold temperatures can significantly slow the rate of adapting from cold-tolerant natural hardwood forests to cold-sensitive, but highly valuable pine plantations. The range of weather variability in climate projections and across the landscape generates large differences in adaptation timing. Ignoring projected future decreases in weather variability results in a large downward bias in estimating future paths of climate adaptation. Since pine plantations produce fewer non-market ecosystem services than natural hardwood forests, an important source of future conservation uncertainty is the economic response of private forest landowners to changing weather variability.

Predicting suitable areas for Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) under climate change and implications for management.

Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study's findings contribute to our understanding of climate change's impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.

Distribution and morphology of non-persistent contrail and persistent contrail formation areas in ERA5

Abstract. The contrail formation potential as well as its temporal and spatial distribution is estimated using meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity from the ERA5 re-analysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Contrail formation is estimated with the Schmidt–Appleman criterion (SAc), solely considering thermodynamic effects. The focus is on a region ranging from the Eastern United States (110–65° W) to central Europe (5° W–30° E). Around 18 000 flight trajectories from the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) are used as a representative subset of transatlantic, commercial flights. The typical crossing distance through a contrail-prone area is determined based on IAGOS measurements of temperature T and relative humidity r and then based on co-located ERA5 simulations of the same quantities. Differences in spatial resolution between IAGOS and ERA5 are addressed from an aircraft-centered perspective, using 1 km segments, and a model-centered perspective, using 19 km flight sections. Using the aircraft-centered approach, 50 % of the crossings of persistent contrail (PC) regions based on IAGOS are shorter than 9 km, while in ERA5 the median is 155 km. Time-averaged IAGOS data lead to a median crossing length of 66 km. The difference between the two data sets is attributed to the higher variability of r in IAGOS compared to ERA5. The model-centered approach yields similar results, but typical crossing lengths are larger by only up to 10 %. Binary masks of PC formation are created by applying the SAc on the two-dimensional fields of T and r from ERA5. In a second step the morphology of PC regions is also assessed. Half of the PC regions in ERA5 are found to be smaller than ≈ 35 000 km2 (at 200 hPa), and the median of the maximum dimension is shorter than 760 km (at 200 hPa). Furthermore, PC regions tend to be of near-circular shape with a tendency to a slight oval shape and a preferred alignment along the dominant westerly flow. Seasonal, vertical distributions of PC formation potential 𝒫 are characterized by a maximum between 250 and 200 hPa. 𝒫 is subject to seasonal variations with a maximum in magnitude and extension during the winter months and a minimum during summer. The horizontal distribution of PC regions suggests that PC regions are likely to appear in the same location on adjacent pressure levels. Climatologies of T, r, wind speed U, and resulting PC formation potential are calculated to identify the constraining effects of T and r on 𝒫. PC formation is primarily limited by conditions that are too warm below and conditions that are too dry above the formation region. The distribution of PCs is slanted towards lower altitudes from 30 to 70° N, following lines of constant T and r. For an observed co-location of high U and 𝒫, it remains unclear whether PC formation and the jet stream are favored by the same meteorological conditions or if the jet stream itself favors PC occurrence. This analysis suggests that some PC regions will be difficult to avoid by rerouting aircraft because of their large vertical and horizontal extents.

How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

Discovering the Arizona Republican Newspaper, 1890-1900: Yellow Journalism in America’s Territorial Press

Yellow journalism is widely believed to have grown out of a circulation battle between Joseph Pulitzer and William Hearst in the 1890s. Most scholarship on its inception has been confined to newspapers in large Eastern cities. To date, little study of the period’s journalism has investigated whether, and to what degree, elements of yellow journalism were practiced by newspapers in Western US states and territories. This examination of the Arizona Republican in the 1890s shows yellow journalism was not confined to the East where it was incubated; in territorial Arizona, yellow journalism flourished. Needing to attract readers in a competitive newspaper market with a growing population, the newspaper did so with large headlines, scurrilous reporting, attention-grabbing news, and illustrations. Beyond the Eastern United States, the same force which brought on yellow journalism—publishers’ needs to attract huge readerships—fueled the practice on America’s territorial frontier in the Arizona Republican.

Atmospheric Rivers in the Eastern and Midwestern United States Associated With Baroclinic Waves

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) significantly impact the hydrological cycle and associated extremes in western continental regions. Recent studies suggest ARs also influence water resources and extremes in continental interiors. AR detection tools indicate that AR conditions are relatively frequent in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. The origin of these ARs, whether from synoptic‐scale waves or mesoscale processes, is unclear. This study uses meteorological composite maps and transects of AR conditions during the four seasons. The analysis reveals that ARs east of the Rockies are associated with long‐wave, baroclinic Rossby waves. This result demonstrates that eastern North American ARs are dynamically similar to their western coastal counterparts, though mechanisms for vertical moisture flux differ between the two. These findings provide a foundation for understanding future climate change and ARs in this region and offer new methods for evaluating climate model simulations.

Seasonal Mortality of Wild Atlantic Menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) Is Caused by a Virulent Clone of Vibrio (Listonella) anguillarum; Implications for Biosecurity along the Atlantic Coastal United States

Atlantic menhaden are a highly migratory marine species in the Eastern United States that suffer from seasonal chronic mortality. Affected fish show neurologic signs referred to as spinning disease, including circling at the surface and erratic corkscrew swimming before death. We investigated three similar menhaden mortality events consistent with spinning disease in coastal New Jersey and New York between 2020 and 2021 to understand the cause. A unique strain of Vibrio (Listonella) anguillarum (serogroup O3) was detected regularly in high loads, particularly in the brains of moribund fish, by both metagenomics and bacterial isolation. The most common histopathological changes in moribund fish were hemorrhagic meningitis, encephalitis, pyknosis, and karyorrhexis of hematopoietic tissues in the kidney and spleen. Whole genome sequencing of isolates from moribund fish representing a wide spatial and temporal range showed that they were nearly identical clones, suggesting it to be a pathogenic strain circulating in the population. Though V. anguillarum is believed to be the main pathogen associated with spinning disease and mortality, Yersinia ruckeri (serotype O1) was isolated from smaller numbers of fish. Considering the highly migratory nature of Atlantic menhaden throughout the eastern United States and their use as bait for other fisheries, these findings identify potential biosecurity challenges that should be considered in Atlantic salmon aquaculture, fisheries, and emerging marine aquaculture in the region.

Urbanization exacerbates climate sensitivity of eastern United States broadleaf trees.

Tree growth is a key mechanism driving carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. Environmental conditions are important regulators of tree growth that can vary considerably between nearby urban and rural forests. For example, trees growing in cities often experience hotter and drier conditions than their rural counterparts while also being exposed to higher levels of light, pollution, and nutrient inputs. However, the extent to which these intrinsic differences in the growing conditions of trees in urban versus rural forests influence tree growth response to climate is not well known. In this study, we tested for differences in the climate sensitivity of tree growth between urban and rural forests along a latitudinal transect in the eastern United States that included Boston, Massachusetts, New York City, New York, and Baltimore, Maryland. Using dendrochronology analyses of tree cores from 55 white oak trees (Quercus alba), 55 red maple trees (Acer rubrum), and 41 red oak trees (Quercus rubra) we investigated the impacts of heat stress and water stress on the radial growth of individual trees. Across our three-city study, we found that tree growth was more closely correlated with climate stress in the cooler climate cities of Boston and New York than in Baltimore. Furthermore, heat stress was a significant hindrance to tree growth in higher latitudes while the impacts of water stress appeared to be more evenly distributed across latitudes. We also found that the growth of oak trees, but not red maple trees, in the urban sites of Boston and New York City was more adversely impacted by heat stress than their rural counterparts, but we did not see these urban-rural differences in Maryland. Trees provide a wide range of important ecosystem services and increasing tree canopy cover was typically an important component of urban sustainability strategies. In light of our findings that urbanization can influence how tree growth responds to a warming climate, we suggest that municipalities consider these interactions when developing their tree-planting palettes and when estimating the capacity of urban forests to contribute to broader sustainability goals in the future.

Consumer Preferences for Wood-Pellet-Based Green Pricing Programs in the Eastern United States

Co-firing wood pellets with coal is an attractive alternative energy generation method with economic, social, and environmental benefits for the US energy generation sector. One way to sustainably use wood pellets for co-firing is to create consumer-supported green pricing programs (GPPs). Our study surveyed residents of five states (Alabama, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia) to investigate preferences for the attributes of a hypothetical GPP. The study applied the Best Worst Choice method, which employs the Best Worst Scaling (BWS) and binary choice (BC) task. The BWS analysis showed that residents of all five states most value the flexibility of contracts, the location of energy generation, and the reduction of carbon emissions as attributes of GPPs. The BC analysis, however, showed that residents are willing to pay a premium for length of contract, followed by reduction of carbon emissions and variability of payments. This study shows that the adoption of optimal GPP attributes can create real customer value. The success of GPPs will depend on increasing enrollment and public support; hence, the next step will be to increase awareness levels and green consciousness through sensitization in the form of public education exercises and media campaigns. Such measures will serve to inform and educate residents on the benefits of GPPs and lessen the gap between intrinsic value and willingness to pay for select attributes.

Defining Disadvantaged Places: Social Burdens of Wildfire Exposure in the Eastern United States, 2000–2020

This study explores the relationship between wildfire exposure, social vulnerability, and community resilience across the 26 states east of the Mississippi River. This work centers around one research question: are there spatial differences in wildfire exposure that disproportionately impact disadvantaged communities in the Eastern United States over the recent period (2000–2020)? Employing remotely sensed wildfire data and ancillary datasets, we analyze and map the extensive wildfire exposure in the Eastern United States and compare it with spatial metrics of social vulnerability and community resilience to examine the social burdens of wildfire exposure in the Eastern U.S. A discernible wildfire exposure pattern emerges, with the Southeast bearing the highest exposure levels, largely attributed to human-caused and prescribed burning. By establishing a measure of disadvantaged counties using social vulnerability and community resilience, we identify regions where wildfire exposures could have the most adverse impact—areas characterized by highly vulnerable populations and limited community capacity to respond effectively to potential events. In evaluating wildfire risk, we conclude that considering not only exposure levels but also the inclusion of disadvantaged areas (incorporating social vulnerability and community resilience) is essential for understanding the disparate impact of wildfires on individuals and the communities where they live.

Phenology and habitat associations of the invasive Asian longhorned tick from Ohio, USA.

Geographically expanding and invading ticks are a global concern. The Asian longhorned tick (ALT, Haemaphysalis longicornis) was introduced to the mid-Atlantic US between 2010 and 2017 and recently invaded Ohio, an inland state. To date, ALTs in the US have been associated with livestock exsanguination and transmission of the agent of bovine theileriosis. To inform management, studies describing tick ecology and epidemiology of associated disease agents are critical. In this study, we described phenology, habitat and host associations, and tested for agents of medical and veterinary concern at the site of the first known established ALT population in Ohio, where pesticide treatment was applied in early fall 2021. In spring-fall 2022, we sampled wildlife (small mammals) and collected ticks from forest, edge, and grassland habitats. We also opportunistically sampled harvested white-tailed deer at nearby processing stations and fresh wildlife carcasses found near roads. Field-collected ALTs were tested for five agents using real-time PCR. We found that ALT nymphs emerged in June, followed by adults, and concluded with larvae in the fall. ALTs were detected in all habitats but not in wildlife. We also found a 4.88% (2/41) prevalence of Anaplasma phagocytophilum across ALT adults and nymphs. Host and habitat associations were similar to other studies in the eastern United States, but two potential differences in phenology were identified. Whether ALTs will acquire more endemic disease agents requires further investigations. Our findings provide the first evidence regarding ALT life history from the Midwest region of the United States and can inform exposure risk and guide integrated management.

Evaluation of Wintertime Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts in the Mountains of Colorado

Abstract Wintertime precipitation poses many observational and forecasting challenges, especially in the complex topography of the western United States where radar beam blockage and difficulty siting in situ observations yields more sparse observations than in the eastern United States. Uncertainty in western U.S. winter precipitation is known to be high, so much so that some studies have found model simulated precipitation to produce similar or better large-scale estimates of annual precipitation than gridded observational products during climatologically anomalous years. This study evaluates high-resolution gridded precipitation estimates from Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) and Stage IV as well as forecasts from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Gridded precipitation estimates and forecasts are compared with in situ SNOTEL measurements for two seasons of wintertime precipitation. The influence of forecast length, lead time, and model elevation on seasonal precipitation predictions from the HRRR are investigated. Additional comparisons are made with the relatively dense network of observations deployed in Colorado’s East River Watershed during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) campaign. Gridded products and forecasts are found to underestimate cold-season precipitation by 25%–65% relative to in situ and aircraft measurements, with longer forecast periods and lead times (6–24 h) having smaller biases (25%–30%) than shorter forecast periods and lead times (55%–65%). The assessment of multiple years of observations indicates that these biases are related more to the data and methods used to create the gridded products and forecasts than to precipitation characteristics. Significance Statement In the mountainous western United States, it is very challenging to both observe and forecast wintertime precipitation, yet snowfall plays an important role in providing the region’s annual water supply. This study aims to increase our understanding of the biases in observations and forecasts of snowfall in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, which can in turn impact forecasts of water availability for the ensuing warm season. In this study we find high-resolution gridded precipitation estimates and forecasts to underestimate cold-season precipitation when compared with in situ observing stations, with longer-range forecasts (e.g., daily) being the least biased. These findings were consistent over two years of study and have broad implications for the hydrologic modeling and water management communities.